By
Piers Harding-Rolls

Most of the commercial interest around 3D in entertainment has been related to movies and cinema box office takings. Global box office revenue from 3D screens recorded over $6.1bn in 2010, more than double the same total in 2009. In terms of games, the 3D opportunity is still embryonic, although the technology has been around for a number of years and more 3D games are being released than ever before. The immediate hope for 3D games entering the mainstream rests with the 3DS but until we have a run of high quality titles, we expect adoption for the platform to be slow. Sony continues to push the concept of 3D on consoles as it has a stake in a several areas of the value chain, including TVs, PS3s and content but at present the 3D on console market is very niche. Likewise the 3D PC games market - there are early adopters using the tech, but as a total market the opportunity is small. We expect 3D to become a common aspect of the offering made by high-end gaming experiences, for next generation consoles et al. But it's unlikely to become a significant driver unless games can be offered that explore 3D's strengths beyond bulking the high-def proposition.

The market will scale in the short term through the 3DS. Longer term, IHS Screen Digest expects a significant uptake of 3D-capable TVs over the next five years, which will drive 3D consumption in the home. For example, we expect 54% of US households to have 3D capable TVs by the end of 2015, up from 7% at the end of 2011. If the games industry can provide unique interactive 3D experiences to consumers we believe it will become a profitable niche, but with the understanding that many consumers will still want to consume games in 2D.

If a publisher is building a title from the ground up to take advantage of 3D, return-on-investment is a challenge, because the adoption is not there yet to cover the incremental costs. If there is only a small incremental investment required in order to have a 3D 'port' of an existing 2D game, then there is likely to be a stronger case for ROI; estimates for increase in development budget have varied from between 10% to just 0.5%, depending on how accommodating the asset-creation pipeline is for 3D. This represents part of the problem however - the 3D games market will be driven more by unique content experiences rather than through ports, but it will require a content company to make the market and drive up the addressable audience to make 3D-specific titles an interesting ROI proposition. With that in mind, we could be waiting until the end of 2012 to see significant third-party investment in 3DS titles.

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