By
Jan Saxton

US theatrical performance this year got off to a slow start but strong summer tentpoles have improved the picture. Variety has year-to-date domestic box office at -4%, while Box Office Mojo's analysis puts it at -5.3%. Looking just at the films enjoying wide release (films that opened on at least 1,000 screens; most opened on 3,000-4,000 screens) through July 31, 2011, IHS Screen Digest estimates they will account for total box office of approximately $5,690m when they have finished their run. Over the last four years the January-July box office spending represented an average of 55% of the total for the year, which suggests the 2011 box office total will come in shy of 2010 by 3%. That's a difference of about $300m, so several films slated for release before year's end would need over-the-top performance to close the gap.

The situation is even less promising in the video market, where box office-to-video conversion rates have been falling steadily as consumers have shifted their spending from retail purchasing to rentals. Looking at the titles that have come to video after a wide theatrical release, a comparison of the totals for the period from January 1st to July 31st shows conversion rates dropping from 1.34 in 2009 to 0.97 in 2010 and 0.82 in 2011 (see table).

The August video slate doesn't offer much help, with more theatrical titles but less box office power than 2010 or 2009. Rio will likely overperform on video compared to its live-action counterparts, and Disney and The Weinstein Co. are hoping that Mars Needs Moms and Hoodwinked Too! will find their audiences on disc after faltering in theaters. There are some powerhouse franchises coming up though: over the next four months we'll see Transformers 3, Harry Potter 7 Pt. 2, The Hangover 2, Pirates of the Caribbean 4 and Fast Five. With their built-in fan bases, they should all drive big disc sales.

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