Few large-scale, client-based MMOG & MOG titles are withstanding the shift to, at the very least, a hybrid free-to-play model. Since 2009, at least ten such titles have made such a change. This isn't a startling figure in itself, but fewer and fewer of them are being released and the actual timeline of such changes is striking: eight of those ten titles made the switch in 2011. The list is as follows:

• Sep-09: Dungeons and Dragons Online
• Sep-10: Lord of the Rings Online
• Jan-11: Champions Online
• Apr-11: Global Agenda
• Jun-11: Age of Conan
• Jul-11: Heroes of Newerth
• Aug-11: Fallen Earth
• Oct-11: DC Universe Online
• Q4-11: City of Heroes/Villains (mooted)
• Q4-11: Star Trek Online (mooted)

Moving to a free-to-play business model from the more predictable basis of compulsory subscription is initially risky, as the value-scale of content has to be reinterpreted without clashing with the play culture that the existing userbase is accustomed to. This is potentially a source of resentment, thanks to a portion of cynicism surrounding microtransactional MMOGs & MOGs: that players will be pressured into endlessly having to purchase virtual items or status boosts in order to accelerate their progression to any kind of satisfying, competitive degree, compared to flat-rate subscription where players can feel confident that they have access to all content under the banner of a single, well-defined rolling payment.

There are powerful flipsides to these issues, however. Launching and maintaining a full-scale subscription MMOG, especially an MMORPG, has become an extremely risky proposition thanks to the investment required to perform competitively. Fewer such titles are being launch, while the existing ecosystem is, as the above list demonstrates, evolving away from such a business model. World of Warcraft remains the classic example of an MMORPG able to create a sustainable direct-subscription business. A more recent example, Trion Worlds' Rift: Planes of Telara, is attempting to follow in its footsteps, but rides on a budget of over $50m. Also, enabling a more varied slate of purchases activates the 'whales', the most fanatical of players whose willingness to spend can greatly exceed subscription revenue. Under the banner of free-to-play, only a minor percentage of players convert to paying customers, but within that is an even smaller core of 'whales' whose commitment and willingness produces an equally disproportionate share of consumer revenues for a game.

Atop of this, it's worth noting that free-to-play infrastructures both necessitate and benefit from a deeper consideration of analytics. Classic subscription titles have only a small window in which to convert new users (defined by a 30-day trial, say, or a harsh level cap), but free-to-play games have a much greater timespan within with to convert players, dealing with seasoned users who are already engaged but yet to be encouraged into purchase. This provides much wider opportunity for making actionable observations of players' relationships with in-game economies, potentially developing a richer user experience plus increased returns for the operator.

In the online console space, DC Universe and Free Realms represent differentiation for Sony compared to Microsoft and Nintendo, who are both yet to embrace MMOG & MOG titles to any significant extent on their respective machines. The actual extent of uptake, however, is yet to be seen, but the pressure on specialist game publishers to evolve from a product-oriented to a service-oriented approach is building, thanks to burgeoning competition on non-specialist mobile platforms and outlets such as Facebook. In the PC space especially, users are now exposed to unprecedented waves of free content, and so the battle for their attention and spend is intensifying, and adapting where possible to more flexible business models and content-delivery mechanisms will be key, as evidenced by our recently-published forecast on MMOG & MOG markets in the western world.