By
Richard Cooper

• DVD disc sales declined 10.5% in the first nine months of 2011
• Blu-ray Disc sales growth has strengthened, increasing 35% year on year
• French market forecasts unchanged, showing marginal declines in both sales volumes and consumer spending by year end 2011

IHS Screen Digest forecasts for 2011 remain unchanged in the light of third quarter data compiled by GfK and published by the French Centre National de la Cinématographie (CNC).

According to the CNC - which traditionally reports volumes by individual discs as opposed to SKUs - the total number of DVDs and BDs sold to consumers in the first nine months of 2011 fell to 83.4m, a decline of 7.5% compared to the same period in 2010. Total French spending on buying physical video fell 8.8% to €802m.

DVD disc sales declined year-on-year by 10.5% to 75m by the end of Q3 2011. According to the CNC, the average consumer price of a DVD (again, analysed per disc rather than per SKU) also fell by 2.4% during the same time period. As a result consumer spending on the format fell 12.9% to €672m. BD volume sales have continued to accelerate though the year growing 35% in the first nine months of 2011 to 7.9m discs (again, not SKUs). The average price of a BD disc in France also continued the H1 trend, falling by 14.8% and contributing to an increase of 20.4% in consumer spending to €130m by the end of the third quarter 2011 compared to the same period in 2010.

Video Intelligence subscribers should note that neither CNC nor GfK monitors the video rental sector in France, nor does the Q3 video data include sales of DVDs or BDs through newspaper kiosks. IHS Screen Digest monitors both these channels separately.

The Q3 results are in line with existing IHS Screen Digest DVD and BD forecasts. By year-end 2011 we expect DVD sales to consumers to have declined by 6.7% to 81m units while the average price of a DVD SKU (not disc) will fall 2.4% to €13.63. As a result, we anticipate that consumer spending on the format will decline by 9% to €1,103m. BD unit sales will reach 14.1m this year, a 46.3% increase over 2010 and consumer spending on the format will increase to €236m up 36%. Overall we anticipate that the French market will show only marginal declines with volumes and consumer spending slipping 1.4% and 3.3% respectively.

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