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December 07, 2011
Sweeping the charts with its Friday November 11 debut, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 helped to bring the 2011 year-to-date video sales comparisons to 2010 back up to the -7.9% reached at the end of October. Though the packaged video sales sector of the home entertainment market continues to post year-over-year declines in most months, results have been improving all year since double-digit declines January through March left the first quarter of the year -17% from 2010.
The long-awaited finale of the Harry Potter franchise continued as the number one title during the week ending November 20, selling over 4.1m units by the end of its first full week at retail (ten days from its release date) according to IHS Screen Digest analysis of Nielsen VideoScan data. The number two and three titles in the week of November 20 were Pirates of the Caribbean and The Lion King, both boosted by their DVD debuts which had been held back one month in a successful move to encourage sales of BD/DVD combo packs. Cars 2, which debuted on BD and DVD on November 1, came in fourth, followed by Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part1 and the Harry Potter eight-film collection.
Year-to-date video sales to consumers through the first nine months of the year were down -9.4% (through the week ending October 2; see Hollywood Aftermarket October 2011) but relatively strong October sales cut that deficit to -7.9% by the week ending October 30. That can largely be attributed to the exceptionally strong set of titles released in the month, which had 73% more box office behind them than the October slate in 2010 (see table). That the year-to-date comparisons have held up through November is welcome news, since the November slate had 26% less box office strength than the previous year.
Releasing on October 25, Captain America: The First Avenger, with $176.6m in box office, sold over 1.4m units in its first week at retail. Cars 2 with $191.2m in box office sold 2.2m units in its debut the first week of November, then Harry Potter 7 Part 2 arrived on the scene. After that the November slate's only other $100m-plus box office title was Super 8, which released during the week of Black Friday. Early returns suggest it sold over 700,000 units in its first week, but the top slot was taken by Cars 2 which sold nearly 1m additional units during Black Friday week.
Black Friday sales shifted dramatically toward DVD: of the Nielsen top 100 video titles for the week ending November 27, only 13 SKUs were BD; 87 were DVD, which makes sense considering that Black Friday shoppers brave the crowds in search of bargains. Of the estimated 21m units sold, nearly 20m were DVDs, 93% of the total. But that will shift back in December, when the first three weeks will see the video debut of six titles with over $100m in box office behind them, topped by The Hangover Part 2. One other thing is shifting in Blu-ray's favor: the top 100 titles for each week are including more catalog titles on BD, now that more consumers have BD-capable hardware installed and studios are opening their vaults. This year BDs are likely to be the kind of popular gifts that DVDs used to be, while DVDs will still make great stocking stuffers.
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