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November 19, 2010
3D is gaining traction as movies pop up in the video-on-demand window at Verizon FiOS TV, via Avail-TVN. Avail-TVN, which provides VOD movies to pay-TV network operators are also bringing forth other 3D content, concerts and other events. This is the first outing for both Avail-TVN and FiOS into the 3D space.
FiOS has licensed eight 3D titles, available beginning Nov 16, including Disney's Chicken Little, Bolt and Meet the Robinsons and Warner's Cats & Dogs: Revenge of Kitty Galore, Journey to the Center of the Earth, Under the Sea 3D, Deep Sea 3D and NASCAR 3D. Disney's Christmas Carol and Step Up 3D will arrive on FiOS in December. While FiOS has only announced the release of titles from Disney and Warner, 3D titles from other studios are likely to follow in early 2011.
FiOS's 3D titles are offered at a $2 premium to their 2D HD counterparts at $7.99, FiOS HD VOD costs $5.99 a rental. FiOS tech requirements are a 3D television set, 3D glasses and a high-definition set-top.
This move matches Comcast and Time Warner Cable who announced at the end of last month that they were bringing in 3D VOD fare via iN DEMAND. Comcast and Time Warner cable are offering: Scar 3D, Under the Sea 3D, Deep Sea 3D, Journey to the Center of the Earth 3D and NASCAR 3D on a transactional basis. Both operators are also offering several titles on a free on-demand basis: SOS Planet 3D, Haunted Castle 3D, Siegfried And Roy: The Magic Box 3D, Alien Adventure 3D, 3D Sun, Misadventures In 3D and Mummies: Secrets Of The Pharaohs 3D.
DirecTV is getting in the game with several offerings: Nascar 3D, Under the Sea 3D and Journey to the Center of the Earth 3D. DirectTV has taken a leadership role in the 3D linear business with the launch of it in-house n3D channel and carriage of ESPN 3D.
On-demand movies and sports will be the most popular 3D programing. The level of excitement from movie and sports fans will be a major factor in determining the speed at which 3D penetrates the home market. As it is, all the pieces seem to be falling into place:
? Screen Digest forecasts that nearly 1.6m homes will have 3D TV sets by the end of this year - nearly all (99.9%) finding their way to the living room. Samsung VP marketing Jonas Tanenbaum told a CTAM cable seminar ago said that his company's estimate is 2m 3D TV sets sold this year.
? TV outlets presented various sports events in 3D starting in earnest at midyear. About a half dozen linear 3D TV channels are telecasting and more are in the pipeline.
? As of September, of the 275 new-release titles released on Blu-ray this year, 25 were 3D movies, though the majority were only available with a hardware bundle.
? 2D to 3D conversions of catalog titles is underway, including Titanic and Star Wars, but they won't be available to consumers until 2012.
? Video game makers are also rolling out 3D, with both Sony and Microsoft committing to the release of several titles each.
? The move to 3D started with Walt Disney's animated Chicken Little in November 2005; Screen Digest estimates that Hollywood will have cranked out 40+ 3D cinema releases by end of 2010.
Despite its huge popularity in theaters 3D still faces many challenges in the home. In the first half of the year, Screen Digest research found that 3D TV sets cost 35-70% more than comparable 2D models; narrowing that premium is one factor key to driving wider adoption.
News reports and reviews suggest that some first generation 3D TV signals are of uneven quality. Some viewers find it causes eye-fatigue or even headaches, though Blu-ray 3D gets higher marks. 3D TV sets currently require that viewers wear liquid-crystal shutter glasses for the effect. Now that some new 3D consumer electronics products have been announced that don't require glasses, including handhelds and a Toshiba TV set with back-lit LED projection that initially will be sold only in Japan, there's a chance consumers will postpone adoption while waiting for glasses-free 3D. In reality, decent glasses-free 3D is at least a half-decade away. Fortunately, in the nearer term, we are likely to see a next-generation of 3DTVs providing much better images and the relatively eyestrain-free comfort of passive polarized glasses such as those in use in theaters.
Over the long-term, mass adoption of 3D-capable TVs in the home is likely a foregone conclusion, given natural replacement cycles and what is likely to prove a quickly disappearing price premium. The burning question is how much 3D content will be consumed on them, and will there be any revenue upside for pay TV operators? On that front, hit 3D movies at a premium VOD price is a good start.
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