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Agency business struggles to improve
March 10, 2010
The global advertising market is slowly recovering but global agencies were still struggling in Q4, 2009. The world's top five advertising groups (WPP, Omnicom, Interpublic Group (IPG), Publicis and Havas) have reported 2009 results, full-year and Q4, confirming the continued pressure that global advertising markets are under. Despite marked stabilisation in the decline rates in Q4, none of the main companies are nearing clear recovery at this stage. Omnicom and IPG started to decline in 08H2 ahead of the other three groups and saw the steepest organic declines for 2009: -8.7 and -10.8 per cent respectively. Publicis fared best with a 6.5 per cent drop for 09FY. Havas and Omnicom were at 7.9 and 8.1 per cent organic decline respectively. Havas was closest to resuming growth with -4.4 per cent organic rate in Q4; WPP and IPG stand furthest with -7.0 and -8.2 per cent respectively. Global media agencies saw their revenues slashed substantially during the advertising recession of 2008-2009. Operating incomes declined but remained positive and operating margins for WPP and Omnicom decreased by approximately one percentage point over the year. However, significant endeavours to cut operating costs - mainly by reducing headcount - have contributed to stabilising these declines.
The leading players also sought to diversify their activity mix to lessen their dependence on core advertising activities (creation, planning, buying) by embracing wider marketing services. Most notably, WPP's acquisition of TNS Media Research ? since renamed Kantar Media - which contributed to a great extent in bringing core advertising revenue share for the group down from 44.5 per cent in 2008 to 38.7 per cent in 2009.
From a regional perspective, the groups continue to experience very difficult conditions on both sides of the Atlantic. 09FY organic decline rates stood at an average 10 per cent for Continental Europe with slightly better results in the UK region. North American revenues hovered at high single digit organic decline rates, except for French group Publicis who reported only -4.2 for the region.
Due to the difficult economic conditions, numerous advertisers sought to revise and restructure their advertising spend. Budgets were drastically cut and a record number of contracts were open to new pitches. Amongst the most recent major contract changes are Unilever China's account (estimated $200-400m) won at the end of 09Q4 by Omnicom, and WPP's win in Q1 2010 of the consolidated UK COI account (worth £250m per year) which was formerly spread across a number of agencies. The increased competition forced agencies to charge lower commissions and fees which in turn further impacts negatively on their profitability.
A return to growth, albeit a very moderate one, is anticipated for 2010 by media groups. WPP forecasts 2010 to be flat overall with a return to positive growth in 10Q2. Favourable comparatives with 2009 results and a number of events ? in particular the FIFA world cup ? will allow advertising markets to continue improving. With little perspective of a return to pre-recessionary growth levels in Western Europe and US in 2010, the groups will continue to focus investments on decreasing advertising share, and on increasing digital activities and the share of emerging market revenues.
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