January 15, 2009

It may only be a coincidence that 1998-1999--the last incidence of rental growth trends outperforming retail--was the first and second full-year of DVD availability, as 2007-2008 were for BD. Or that 1998-1999 was an era in which the rental market was being revived after a period of extended weakness by a new model (depth-of-copy via revenue-sharing); this time, the new model the consumer is embracing is $1/night kiosk rentals, to the tune of $438m in in spending in 2008. But we're not big believers in coincidence.

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