available to FULL subscribers of:
format: Print & PDF
published:
06-Feb-07
pages: 55
-
tables & charts: 43
Territories covered
Western Europe
Austria,
France,
Germany,
Ireland,
Italy,
Portugal,
Spain,
Switzerland,
North America
USA,
Asia-Pacific
Australia,
Japan,
New Zealand,
Companies covered
Electronic Arts
Konami
Microsoft
Nintendo
Sony
Square Enix
Ubisoft
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The Screen Digest report Next Generation Consoles: Games publishing, hardware analysis and forecasts to 2010 examines the prospects for next generation platforms and the implications for the console manufacturers and third party publishers alike. In addition the report forecasts next generation hardware and software markets to 2010.
By using survey data from major software publishers, the report provides an overview of third party attitudes to making games for the new console platforms. In addition the report models how many unit sales a third party publisher will need to sell in order to break even in the key US market. The report considers the implications for the hardware manufacturers in an era where the cost of developing new titles has climbed significantly. The early part of the console cycle is the most costly and third party publishers must make tough decisions on which of the new platforms to support, without the benefit of knowing how successful each console will be in a given territory.
In this period of transition spending on previous generation console software is in steep decline before the next generation has matured sufficiently to compensate. Better than expected performance from PS2 and handheld platforms grew the market in 2006 but publishers will now look to the new platforms to power growth from 2007 onwards.
According to the report's author, Ed Barton, "Already its obvious that the industry has taken a great leap forward by releasing next generation technology and gaming experiences one would not have dared to dream about a decade ago. Consoles have evolved into multimedia hubs but games remain the key driver for hardware sales. This report analyses the key roles games catalogues and publisher support play in driving console sales. It assesses the publishing strategies of the platform owners and third parties in producing games to drive the transition from the previous to the next generation of console gaming."
Key Findings
Global sales of next generation software is forecast to reach $13.9bn by 2009
PS2-style dominance will not be repeated in the next generation hardware market: we anticipate that competition will be far more intense with market shares split on a territorial basis
The cost of making games has increased markedly in the next generation, as a consequence the importance of first party publishing has increased while third parties seek strategies to mitigate now precipitous levels of risk
Sales of PS2 games will persist well into the next generation: Screen Digest anticipates significant PS2 game sales across all major territories until the end of 2008
In the report
Global next generation console hardware and software forecasts to 2010
Analysis of platform owner and third party publisher strategies
The rising cost of making games
Break even analysis: how much must a game sell to break even in the US
Next generation software catalogues: publishing pipelines, historic sales, new IP and platform exclusivity analysed
Next generation online: the evolution from games platform to broadband media hub
Table of contents
Tables and charts
Management summary
Introduction
Fundamentals of console cycles
First-party publishers and third-party publishers
Next gen console hardware
Raising the bar - the impact on game production costs
Why does the cost of making games keep rising?
Cost mitigation strategies
Raising barriers to entry and level of risk for publishers
Next gen publishing break even analysis
Introduction
Break even analysis I: Single platform
Break even analysis II: Multi-platform
Publisher strategies for the next-generation
Exploiting online business models
Key features of next generation console online services
PlayStation Network Platform
Microsoft Xbox Live
Microsoft XBL non-gaming content strategy
Nintendo Virtual Console
Next generation software analysis
Introduction
Games publishing pipelines
Platform exclusivity
Five million unit sales
New IP – who is taking most risks?
Who is playing safe?
Platform owner publisher strategies
Sony
Microsoft
Nintendo
Winners and losers
Next generation console forecasts
Strengths and weaknesses summary of content line-up for the 3 platforms
Which publishers appear best-placed to reap next-gen rewards?
EA
Square Enix
Take Two Interactive
Ubisoft
Tables and charts
Management summary
Global 128 bit (last generation) and 256 bit (next generation) annual software sales value
Global 128 bit (last generation) and 256 bit (next generation) annual software sales value ($m)
Introduction
Year on year hardware sales trends (Volumes 000s)
Year on year global hardware volume
Next generation console overview
Next gen console hardware
Overview table of launch dates and pricing
Raising the bar - the impact on game production costs
Next generation console predictions
Ubisoft scale up: Development staff growth 1992 - 2006
Incidence of console hits: US Lifetime sales 2004 - 2006
Next gen publishing break even analysis
US console games: average annual sales per game
Incidence of console hits: US Lifetime sales 2004 - 2006
Xbox 360
Playstation 3
Wii
Xbox 360 & Playstation 3 multiplatform
Xbox 360 & Playstation 3 & Wii multiplatform
Publisher strategies for the next-generation
World annual software sales value ($m)
US Software sales by platform 2005-2010
Exploiting online business models
Next generation software analysis
Total released games to end Q4 06 by platform
Total games scheduled for release: Q1 07 onwards
Platform exclusives
5m+ selling franchises by platform
Game release schedules
Next gen titles based on 5m+ selling IP by publisher
Games based on new IP by platform
New IP overview
First party publisher games analysis
Platform owner content strategies
Publisher internal development capability
Microsoft global annual software sales value: Xbox & Xbox 360
Microsoft Xbox 360: Installed base (PAL territories; US; Japan)
Microsoft Japan annual software sales volume: Xbox & Xbox 360
Nintendo DS global annual software sales volumes
Nintendo Wii annual software sales Value 2006-2010
Last generation console global installed base
Winners and losers
Next generation console global installed base
Last generation console market shares
Next generation console installed base global market shares
Next generation console installed base global market shares
World: Last generation global installed base by platform
World: Installed base by platform
Games Intelligence
