Screen Digest has identified three critical success factors that will support the successful migration to HDTV: penetration of HD-ready displays, supply of HD content and HD channels, and the availability of HD broadcast on a variety of television platforms. The report shows that all these are now cleared for a sustainable migration to HD in the long term.
In the next five years, HDTV will mainly develop as a pay TV product in Europe, and mostly a satellite product. However after analogue switch-offs are completed between 2010 and 2012, and digital free-to-air platforms are upgraded to more advanced technologies, they will end-up with more bandwidth capacity and become more widely accessible. It will kick-start the next phase of HDTV migration as HD becomes the mainstream and ultimately, the standard form of free television around the middle of next decade. In ten years, nobody will ever refer to 'high definition' as high definition will be everywhere. However, in the short term, HD broadcast offering in Europe remains patchy, for three reasons:
- Lack of HD on free-to-air platforms: only Sweden has already launched HD on free DTT and only France and the UK are likely to follow in the short-mid-term; 'Freesat HD' despite its name has a disappointing HD line-up and is not likely to make a strong market impact in the UK.
- Lack of local HD channels in many countries: pay TV operators relying mostly on US HD channels supply so far.
- Lack of ambition from a number of European pay TV operators.
HD has not been pushed hard enough yet by many of Europe's pay TV operators. Paradoxically it has been used heavily as a marketing tool, but has not been followed through with the delivery of HD channels – for example, Premiere in Germany still only offers two HD channels and its HD uptake is sluggish. By contrast BSkyB has now 17 HD channels covering all genres, and on the back of this has signed up almost 500,000 subscribers in less than two years – the fastest take-up of any new BSkyB product. There is a clear connection between the depth of the HD offerings and the take up of HD by subscribers.
Making HD Pay:
In European pay TV markets that shows signs of maturity, operators can use HD to drive ARPU, increase loyalty and reduce churn rates. HDTV can also drive pay TV acquisition, as new owners of HD-ready sets are frustrated by the lack of free HD sources. Pay TV operators should therefore seize this window of opportunity before free TV eventually accommodates more HD.
MPEG4 migration:
The new Screen Digest report also includes an exclusive and detailed analysis of how the migration to HDTV can also leverage the migration to MPEG4 in a virtuous circle. Screen Digest believes that small and medium sized pay-TV operators might benefit from reduced costs of transmission and release bigger capacity by migrating their subscribers to MPEG4 at an early stage.
Key findings:
- The penetration of HD-display TVs has reached 20 per cent in Western Europe, 36 per cent in North America.
- In 2012, in developed markets, HD-readiness will stand between 75 per cent and 100 per cent.
- Globally, households equipped with HD-display will grow from 87m in 2007 (9 per cent of TV households), to nearly 500m by 2012 (45 per cent).
- Approximately 100 HD channels available in the US and in Western Europe. Between 2 and 15 in each individual European country.
- In Europe, there were 1.2m active HD-enabled homes at end-2007 (less than one per cent) out of 30m HD-display homes, pay TV subscribers accounting for 80 per cent of all HD homes.
- By then, another 110m homes will only watch SD television signals on their HD displays (although many of them will be watching HD movies out of their Blu-ray players or playing HD console games).
- In home video, the emergence of Blu-ray as the only HD format is bound to drive uptake, overall HD awareness and quality expectations.
- Beyond broadcasting, cable and IPTV operators are also offering HD VOD offerings. IPTV and online VOD will struggle to offer HD because of bandwidth limitations.
- HD is becoming one key element in the competition between the four TV platforms (satellite, cable, IPTV, terrestrial) which have different capacities to offer HD content.
- HD is also a key element in pay TV marketing, helping to drive ARPU and reduce churn, but also potential driving customer acquisition.
In the report:
- Comprehensive industry overview with historical data from 2000 through 2012 forecasts.
- Forecast of total market growth to 2012: HD-ready display homes and penetration, active HD viewers, number of HD platforms, number of HD channels
- Individual profile and assessment of HDTV strategy with five years' forecast data (HD subscribers) for a selection of top 18 pay TV operators
- Opportunities for international content providers, pay TV operators, investors and technology suppliers
Table of contents
Introduction - Definitions
Executive Summary
Part 1: HDTV Global overview
HDTV roll-out and market forecasts
Availability of HD content
HD on digital terrestrial television
HD display readiness
HD-enabled homes
Pay TV operators
HDTV content
HDTV channels
Hi-def home video
Hi-def gaming
Online HD content
HDTV business case
Typology of HDTV benefits
Factors influencing optimal HD strategy
The demand for HDTV
MPEG4 and HDTV business case
MPEG4/HD routes
MPEG4 switchover
Business case of HD simulcasts
Part 2: HDTV market profiles and player profiles
Western Europe: Key markets
Benelux markets
France
Germany
Italy
Nordic markets
Spain
United Kingdom
EMEA: Other markets
Austria
Czech Republic
Estonia
Ireland
Israel
Poland
Portugal
Russia
Switzerland
Turkey
Asia Pacific
Australia
China
Hong Kong
Japan
New Zealand
Singapore
South Korea
North America
Canada
USA
Notes on other markets
South Africa
Thailand
Taiwan
Annex 1 : High Definition 'for dummies'
Annex 2: Glossary
Annex 3: Detailed forecasts
Annex 4: High Definition channels lists
Tables and charts
Scope of the report
Introduction - Definitions
Executive Summary
HDTV uptake: Key figures
Part 1: HDTV overview
HDTV roll-out and market forecasts
Availability of HD content by market and by platform (details)
Availability of HD content by platform (summary)
Cable operators and HDTV (selection)
Bandwidth required for HDTV
TV platforms and their capacity to deliver HDTV
IPTV operators and HDTV (selection)
Satellite operators and HDTV (selection)
Pros and cons of free-to-air HDTV over
DTT (UK case)
HD penetration concepts
Chronology of TV innovations
HD-ready households (000s)
HD-ready households (%)
Western Europe HD uptake 2007
Western Europe HD uptake 2012
Western Europe HD uptake (2005-2012)
Western Europe HD uptake (2007)
Western Europe HD uptake (2012)
HD-enabled homes Western Europe 2005-2012: pay TV v. free TV
Global HD uptake 2005-2012
Key success factors for HD markets uptake
HD-enabled households (000s)
HD-enabled households (%)
Digital TV and HDTV migration in Western Europe
Digital TV and HDTV migration in the US
European pay TV operators: HD line-up and performance at end - 2007
Key HD operators (analysed in Part 2)
HD subscribers for major pay TV operators (selection)
HD conversion rate for major pay TV operators (selection)
HDTV channels available by delivery mechanism
HDTV channels by satellite system
HDTV content
HDTV channels by genre and launch year
HDTV channels by genre and launch year
HDTV channels by genre and launch year
HDTV channels by country and launch year
HDTV channels by business model and launch year
HDTV channels by business model and launch year
HDTV channels by pay TV operator and launch year (selection)
HDTV channels by pay TV operator and launch year (selection)
Number of HD channels available by country
HDTV channels by pay TV operator and launch year (selection)
HD Channels in Europe
Home video v. broadcast TV: the race for higher quality
BD player/recorder penetration
BD games console penetration
BD player/recorder penetration of HDTV households
BD games console penetration of HDTV households
HD console installed base market share by territory
USA: Installed base by platform
HD consoles in % of all installed base
Installed base by platform (Japan)
Installed base by platform (Europe)
Installed base by platform (Global)
Sales of HD consoles (global)
Installed base of HD consoles (global)
Categories of benefits associated with HDTV
HDTV business case
Revenues from HD boxes and HD fees
HD line-up and pricing (selection)
The optimal HD timing and trade-off etween costs and opportunities
The MPEG4 and HDTV business case
HDTV and MPEG4, the virtuous circle
Basic cost assumptions (default model)
The 'sit-back' scenario (spontaneous switchover over 10 years)
Switching mid-sized platform in year 4: a €178m loss
Switching mid-sized platform in year 7: a €102m gain
Switching mid-sized platform in year 4: a €178m loss
Switching mid-sized platform in year 7: a €102m gain
Switching a small platform in year 3: a €227m gain
Switching big platform in year 4: a €586m loss
Outcome of the cost-benefit modelling (transponder cost €4m in year 1)
Outcome of the cost-benefit modelling
Revenues and costs of an HD simulcast
Number of subscribers to break-even an HD simulcast
Part 2: HDTV market profiles and player profiles
Western Europe: Key markets
Key data: Benelux
Key HD forecasts: Benelux
Key data: France
HD channels available
Native HD output: TF1/M6 roadmaps
Native HD output on TF1
Range of set-top boxes of Canal Plus
HD DTT plans in France by multiplex
Numericable's set-top box range
Key HD forecasts: France
Key data: Germany
Comparing Premiere HD and Sky HD
Premiere box pricing
Key HD forecasts: Germany
Key data: Italy
Key HD forecasts: Italy
Sky Life's HD packaging
Key data: Nordic
Canal Digital Boxes
Key data: Denmark
Key HD forecasts: Denmark
Key data: Finland
Key HD forecasts: Finland
Key data: Norway
Key HD forecasts: Norway
Key data: Sweden
Key HD forecasts: Sweden
Key data: Spain
Key HD forecasts: Spain
Key data: United Kingdom
HDTV feeds in the UK
Sky+ and Sky HD comparison (quarters following launch)
Sky HD quarterly net addition since launch
Sky HD subscriber forecasts
DTT multiplexes in the UK
Key HD forecasts: United Kingdom
EMEA: Other markets
Key data: Austria
Key HD forecasts: Austria
Key data: Czech Republic
Key HD forecasts: Czech Republic
Key data: Estonia
Key HD forecasts: Estonia
Key data: Ireland
Key HD forecasts: Ireland
Key data: Israel
HDTV channels available in Israel at end - 2007
Key HD forecasts: Israel
Key data: Poland
Key HD forecasts: Poland
Key data: Portugal
Key HD forecasts: Portugal
Key data: Russia
Key HD forecasts: Russia
Key data: Switzerland
Cablecom box range pricing
Key HD forecasts: Switzerland
Key data: Turkey
Key HD forecasts: Turkey
Asia Pacific
Key data: Australia
Key HD forecasts: Australia
Key data: China
Key HD forecasts: China
Key data: Hong Kong
Key HD forecasts: Hong Kong
Key data: Japan
Key forecasts: Japan
Key data: New Zealand
Key HD forecasts: New Zealand
Key data: Singapore
Key HD forecasts: Singapore
Key data: South Korea
Korea's mandatory HD DTT tuner roadmap
Key HD forecasts: South Korea
North America
Key data: Canada
Cogeco's HD Box range and prices
Key HD forecasts: Canada
Key data: USA
DirecTV packages and box cost
DirecTV set-top box range
Dish Network HD options
Dish Network set-top box range (overview)
International TV brands - HD channels distribution overseas (selection)
Key HD forecasts: USA
Notes on other markets
Annex 1 : High Definition 'for dummies'
Comparison of TV format (signals and displays)
HD has four times more pixels than SD
Annex 2: Glossary
Annex 3: Detailed forecasts
Australia
Austria
Belgium
Benelux
Canada
China
Czech Republic
Denmark
Estonia
Finland
France
Germany
Hong Kong
Ireland
Israel
Italy
Japan
Netherlands
Nordic (4 countries)
Norway
New Zealand
Poland
Portugal
Russia
South Korea
Singapore
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
Turkey
United Kingdom
USA
Annex 4: High Definition channels lists
List of European HDTV channels
List of US HDTV channels
Television Intelligence
UK,
Austria,
Belgium,
Denmark,
Finland,
Germany,
Greece,
Ireland,
Italy,
Netherlands,
Norway,
Portugal,
Spain,
Sweden,
Switzerland,
France,
