Games Publishers on Track for Solid Q4

By
Christine Arrington

January 26, 2012

A mixed bag of highly successful launches and digital content have driven revenue in the fourth quarter of 2011 for the major traditional publishers in the games space. Activision's Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3 and Electronic Arts' Battlefield 3 have generated a high-profile stand-off over one of the most lucrative game categories in console and high-end PC gaming - near-future military shooters with heavyweight multiplayer components - that between them have generated shipments of over 37m units, according to IHS Screen Digest forecasts.

As digital distribution channels proliferate across the PC and mobile devices, so major publishers continue to recalibrate their strategies to take advantage of this fast-evolving ecosystem. Activision Blizzard remains king of the digital/online space by a significant margin thanks to the ongoing dominance of World of Warcraft, while EA continues rule the mobile roost by a comfortable stretch. To a lesser extent, Ubisoft and THQ are beginning to see their digital strategies take off, lending further shape to a complex yet key battleground that will place increased bearing on revenues into 2012 and beyond.

Highlights:

World of Warcraft continues to experience churn, but Activision Blizzard puts fresh wind in its digital sails with its Call of Duty: Elite service platform.
THQ sees strong performance from core title Saints Row: The Third, but performance of titles for younger players underscores decision to withdraw from this category
Digital revenue for EA to be driven by DLC for catalogue titles, while mobile will derive further health from core gaming tie-ins and new launches.

In this report:

2011 C4Q Top Line Publisher Forecasts
2011 C4Q key games release shipment forecasts
Publisher digital and mobile distribution summary
Packaged games publishers transitioning to digial
Forecast revenue shares within publisher basket
Activision Blizzard C4Q 2011 revenue forecast
Activision Blizzard revenue forecast and key title forecasts
Electronic Arts revenue forecast and key title forecasts
Electronic Arts C4Q 2011 revenue splits
Ubisoft revenue forecast and key title forecasts (pt.1)
Ubisoft revenue forecast and key title forecasts (pt.2)
Take Two revenue forecast and key title forecasts
THQ revenue forecast and key title forecasts

Tables and charts included:

Quarterly non-GAAP revenue forecasts, by publisher
Quarterly packaged games revenue, by publisher
Quarterly digital and online revenue, by publisher
Quarterly mobile revenue, by publisher
2011 C4Q key games release shipment forecasts
Publisher digital and mobile distribution summary
Quarterly digital and online revenues, by publisher
Quarterly non-GAAP revenue share in publisher group
Quarterly packaged games revenue share in publisher group
Quarterly digital and online revenue share in publisher group
Quarterly mobile games revenue share in publisher group
Activision Blizzard: C4Q non-GAAP revenue YoY change
Activision Blizzard: Quarterly historical and forecast revenue
Activision Blizzard: Key releases and revenue forecast
Activision Blizzard: Revenue forecast split
Electronic Arts: Key releases and revenue forecast
Electronic Arts: Quarterly historical and forecast revenue
Electronic Arts: C4Q revenue forecast split
Electronic Arts: Quarterly digital, online and mobile revenue
Ubisoft: C4Q non-GAAP revenue YoY change
Ubisoft: Quarterly historical and forecast revenue
Ubisoft: Key releases and revenue forecast
Ubisoft: CQ4 revenue forecast split
Take Two: Key releases and revenue forecast
Take Two: Quarterly historical and forecast revenue
THQ: Key releases and revenue forecast
THQ: Quarterly historical and forecast revenue

Pages: 13

Tables & charts: 27

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